By

Simon Hazeldine

Most sales forecasts are not forecasts at all.
They are performances.

They look confident. They sound precise. They are delivered with authority in boardrooms and leadership calls. And far too often, they are quietly detached from reality.

What many organisations call forecasting is actually forecast theatre, a ritualised process where numbers are negotiated, massaged, and emotionally agreed long before they are analytically validated.

The result is not prediction.
It is narrative.

If you want to understand why revenue surprises keep happening, why leadership credibility erodes, and why sales teams learn to play the system instead of trust it, you need to understand how forecast theatre is created and how to dismantle it.

Why Forecasts Drift From Reality

Sales forecasting should be about probability and evidence. In practice, it becomes a blend of optimism, pressure, and politics.

Senior leaders want certainty.
Sales leaders want credibility.
Salespeople want safety.

Those forces collide every forecasting cycle.

Under pressure to “commit with confidence,” sellers quickly learn which numbers are acceptable and which are not. Deals get rounded up. Probabilities get inflated. Close dates drift forward one month at a time. Weak opportunities are kept alive to preserve pipeline sufficiency.

None of this happens because people are dishonest.
It happens because the system rewards confidence over accuracy.

Forecast theatre is born when being right matters less than sounding right.

The Manufacturing Process Behind “Confident Numbers”

Let’s be clear about how false certainty is produced.

1. Optimism Bias Is Baked In

Human beings are wired to overestimate positive outcomes. In sales, that bias is amplified by effort investment. The more work someone puts into a deal, the harder it becomes to assess it objectively.

Effort creates emotional attachment.
Attachment inflates confidence.

Without structural counterweights, optimism becomes policy.

2. Political Pressure Shapes the Narrative

When leaders react badly to bad news, sellers adapt quickly. They soften language. They delay downgrades. They reframe risk as “progress.”

Over time, people stop reporting what is happening and start reporting what feels acceptable.

Forecasts drift away from reality not because people are lying, but because they are self-protecting.

Spreadsheet Alchemy Fills the Gaps

Complex forecasting models often create the illusion of precision without improving accuracy.

Weighted pipelines, blended probabilities, and stage-based maths produce impressive-looking numbers that disguise fragile assumptions underneath.

The maths looks scientific.
The inputs are emotional.

That is not forecasting. That is theatre with formulas.

The Cost of Forecast Theatre

The damage caused by forecast theatre goes far beyond missed numbers.

It erodes trust between sales and leadership.
It reduces the value of pipeline data.
It creates late-stage surprises that destroy credibility.
It encourages sandbagging or reckless optimism.
It shifts leadership time from coaching to firefighting.

Worst of all, it teaches sales teams that accuracy is less important than confidence.

Once that belief sets in, no CRM, AI tool, or analytics platform can save you.

Why Leaders Accidentally Encourage Forecast Theatre

Most forecast theatre is not created by sellers.
It is created by leadership behaviour.

Leaders unintentionally reward:

• Confidence over candour
• Certainty over probability
• Optimism over realism
• Narrative over evidence

When leaders ask, “Can you stand behind that number?” what they often mean is, “Can you reassure me?”

That question invites performance, not truth.

The Anti-Theatre Forecasting Cadence

If you want real predictability, you need to replace forecast theatre with a forecasting operating system. One that values signal over story and learning over blame.

Here is a practical cadence leaders can implement immediately.

Step 1. Separate Forecasting From Performance Judgement

Forecasts collapse when people believe they are being judged on them.

Forecasting should be a diagnostic exercise, not a performance review.

Leaders must explicitly state that accuracy is valued more than optimism. That a downgraded deal is not a failure. That early risk disclosure is a professional behaviour.

When sellers believe forecasts will be used to punish rather than prepare, they will manufacture certainty.

Step 2. Replace Confidence With Evidence

Stop asking sellers how confident they feel.
Start asking what evidence exists.

Effective forecasting questions sound like this:

What decision criteria have been confirmed?
Who has validated the business case?
What has changed since the last review?
Which risks remain unresolved?
What would cause this deal to slip or fail?

Evidence-based forecasting removes emotion from the equation without removing accountability.

Step 3. Forecast in Ranges, Not Absolutes

Absolute numbers create false precision.

Instead of a single committed number, forecast in ranges that reflect uncertainty.

For example:

Best case
Most likely
Downside risk

This approach forces honest thinking and gives leadership a realistic view of volatility.

Predictability does not come from pretending uncertainty does not exist. It comes from managing it openly.

Step 4. Track Forecast Accuracy, Not Just Outcomes

Most organisations obsess over results and ignore forecasting quality.

Start measuring:

Forecast accuracy by seller
Forecast accuracy by deal stage
Frequency of late-stage slippage
Percentage of deals downgraded late

When accuracy is visible and valued, behaviour changes quickly.

People optimise what leaders inspect.

Step 5. Decouple Pipeline Sufficiency From Forecast Pressure

One of the biggest drivers of forecast theatre is fear of pipeline insufficiency.

When sellers believe thin pipeline equals personal failure, they inflate probabilities to compensate.

Leaders must separate:

Pipeline health conversations
Forecast commitment conversations

Pipeline sufficiency is a capacity issue.
Forecast commitment is a probability issue.

Confusing the two corrupts both.

Step 6. Turn Forecast Reviews Into Learning Loops

Forecast reviews should answer one core question:

What are we learning about how deals really progress in our business?

Use reviews to identify patterns, not assign blame.

Where do deals consistently stall?
Which assumptions repeatedly prove false?
Which stages are overestimated?
Where does risk emerge late?

Over time, this creates a self-correcting forecasting system that improves naturally.

What Great Forecasting Cultures Look Like

In high-performing sales organisations, forecasting feels calm, not tense.

Bad news travels fast.
Downgrades are respected.
Uncertainty is discussed openly.
Confidence comes from process, not bravado.

Leaders trust forecasts because they trust behaviour.

And sellers trust leaders because honesty is rewarded, not punished.

Sales Conference Organisers Take Note!

Forecast theatre is one of the most common pain points raised by senior sales leaders. It speaks directly to credibility, predictability, and leadership maturity.

This is a keynote topic that challenges comfortable thinking and gives leaders language for problems they feel but struggle to name.

It also links naturally to broader themes of trust, behaviour change, and sales transformation.

Final Thought

If your forecasts keep surprising you, the issue is not the market.

It is the theatre you have allowed to develop around numbers.

Stop asking for confidence.
Start asking for clarity.
Stop rewarding certainty.
Start rewarding truth.

When forecasting becomes a learning system instead of a performance, predictability follows.

Not because numbers sound confident.
But because they are finally honest.

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About the author

Simon Hazeldine works internationally as a revenue growth and sales performance speaker, consultant, and coach. He empowers his clients to get more sales, more often with more margin.

He has spoken in over thirty countries and his client list includes some of the world’s largest and most successful companies.

Simon has a master’s degree in psychology, is the bestselling author of ten books that have been endorsed by a host of business leaders including multi-billionaire business legend Michael Dell and is co-founder of leading sales podcast “The Sales Chat Show”.

He is the creator of the neuroscience based “Brain Friendly Selling”® methodology.

Simon Hazeldine’s books:

• Neuro-Sell: How Neuroscience Can Power Your Sales Success
• Bare Knuckle Selling
• Bare Knuckle Negotiating
• Bare Knuckle Customer Service
• The Inner Winner
• How To Lead Your Sales Team – Virtually and in Person
• Virtual Selling Success
• How To Manage Your People’s Performance
• How To Create Effective Employee Development Plans
• Virtual Negotiation Success