By
Simon Hazeldine
Most sales organisations assume that deals are won or lost in dramatic fashion. A competitor swoops in. A budget disappears. A stakeholder blocks approval at the eleventh hour.
The reality is very different.
Deals rarely die suddenly.
They decay.
And the worst part is this:
Most salespeople do not spot the decay until it is too late.
If you want to improve win rates, reduce late-stage surprises, and reclaim control over your pipeline, you must learn to identify deal rot early. The good news is that decay is predictable, measurable, and preventable.
You simply need the right lens to see it.
This article introduces the Deal Rot Index – a diagnostic scoring model that highlights decay before a deal collapses. You will also get a practical weekly intervention playbook to help managers coach proactively rather than react defensively.
Why Deals Rot (and Why Sellers Miss the Signs)
Salespeople rarely admit that a deal is slipping. Not because they are dishonest, but because they are human. They cling to hope. They focus on their effort, not the evidence. They confuse activity with progress.
Three psychological factors guarantee that sellers underestimate decay:
1. Effort Bias
The more work a seller puts into a deal, the harder it becomes to assess it objectively.
Effort creates emotional investment.
Emotional investment creates blind spots.
2. Confirmation Bias
Sellers look for evidence that confirms progress and ignore evidence of risk.
A polite email reply is interpreted as momentum.
A stalled timeline is rationalised as “internal delays.”
3. Optimism Pressure
Sales culture often rewards positivity over accuracy.
When sellers believe sharing bad news leads to judgment, they delay it.
The predictable result:
Rot accelerates while everyone pretends the deal is still healthy.
Introducing The Deal Rot Index
The Deal Rot Index is a five-factor scoring system that allows leaders and sellers to detect early-stage decay long before the deal becomes terminal.
Rate each factor on a scale of 1–5 (1 = severe risk, 5 = strong health).
Then track it weekly.
Factor 1: Stage Stagnation
Question: Has the deal advanced stages in the last 14 days?
Signs of rot:
• Close date pushed without new evidence
• No new stakeholder engagement
• No next step confirmed
Stagnation is the earliest sign of decay.
Healthy deals move.
Factor 2: Stakeholder Drift
Question: Are we expanding or shrinking our stakeholder engagement?
Signs of rot:
• Losing access to key influencers
• New stakeholders emerging without engagement
• The buying group becomes fragmented
Deals stall when power shifts and the seller is unaware.
Factor 3: Decision Criteria Clarity
Question: How well do we understand the buyer’s decision criteria?
Signs of rot:
• Criteria is vague, assumed, or incomplete
• Seller relies on a single point of contact for approval
• Decision-making process is undocumented
If you cannot articulate their decision criteria, you are guessing.
Factor 4: Value Validation
Question: Has the buyer validated the business case or value impact?
Signs of rot:
• No quantified business case
• No internal sponsor championing value
• Buyer cannot articulate ROI in their own language
A deal without a champion is a deal waiting to die.
Factor 5: Competitive Position
Question: Are we actively displacing competitors or being displaced?
Signs of rot:
• Competitor access increases without transparency
• Buying group mentions “we are reviewing options”
• The seller assumes competitive strength without proof
If you cannot see the competitor, you are losing to them.
How to Interpret the Deal Rot Index
Add the five scores together.
Total score: 5–25
• 21–25 = Healthy
Monitor normally.
• 16–20 = At Risk
Intervene within 7 days.
• 11–15 = High Risk
Escalate coaching immediately.
• 5–10 = Critical Rot
Requalify. Decide whether to revive or exit.
The goal is not to criticise sellers.
The goal is to eliminate blind spots.
Rot thrives in silence and assumptions.
The Weekly Intervention Playbook
Once you are measuring decay, you must intervene with discipline.
Here is the operating rhythm I recommend for every sales manager.
1. Monday Review: Score the Deals
Each seller scores their top five deals using the Deal Rot Index.
Managers do not challenge the score.
The score is not the point.
The conversation is the point.
2. Tuesday Pipeline Coaching: Identify the Rot Factors
Manager and seller select the two lowest scoring factors.
Examples:
• Stagnation + stakeholder drift
• Value validation + decision criteria
• Competitive position + stagnation
Focus drives progress.
3. Wednesday Action Plan: Define One High-Impact Step
Sellers choose one action that directly addresses the lowest scoring factor.
Examples:
• Schedule a multi-stakeholder alignment call
• Confirm decision criteria with procurement
• Validate ROI with the economic buyer
• Rebuild access to lost influencers
The action must be observable, specific, and time-bound.
4. Friday Debrief: Close the Loop
Manager and seller review progress:
• Was the action completed?
• What changed?
• What remains unclear?
• What is the next block?
This builds rhythm, accountability, and momentum.
Why This System Works Better Than Traditional Pipeline Reviews
Most pipeline reviews fail because they focus on:
• Forecast numbers
• Activity levels
• Seller opinions
• Close dates
These conversations are reactive, not diagnostic.
The Deal Rot Index shifts the conversation to:
• Evidence, not emotion
• Truth, not optimism
• Decisions, not assumptions
• Health, not hope
That shift transforms weak pipelines into strong ones.
The Leadership Advantage
Senior sales leaders gain three immediate benefits:
1. Predictability Improves
You spot decay early.
Late-stage surprises disappear.
2. Coaching Quality Improves
Managers coach around risk, not narrative.
3. Win Rates Improve
Healthy deals progress faster.
Rotting deals are exited earlier, freeing time and energy.
You stop trying to resuscitate deals that were dead months ago.
Final Thought
Deals do not fall apart at the end.
They rot quietly in the middle.
Your job as a leader is not to react at the last minute.
It is to detect decay early, intervene decisively, and coach skilfully.
Measure what others ignore.
Address what others avoid.
Act sooner than others think necessary.
That is how you build a high-performance sales organisation.
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You may find this episode from my “Sales Chat Show” podcast useful:
“Mastering the Art of Cost-Effective Sales Strategies in Tough Times”
In this timely episode of the Sales Chat Show, Simon Hazeldine, Graham Jones, and Anthony Steers tackle the big question many sales professionals are facing right now: How do you sell smart when the economy isn’t on your side?
With economic headwinds, shifting buyer behaviours, and tighter budgets, the trio shares practical, real-world strategies for delivering sales results without blowing the budget. From improving buyer targeting and focusing on profitable activity to enhancing customer retention and leveraging no-cost digital tactics, this episode is packed with insight for navigating uncertain times.
Whether you’re a frontline seller or a sales leader under pressure, you’ll walk away with actionable ideas to stay commercially sharp, resilient, and cost-effective.
The “Sales Chat Show” is also available from all the major podcast platforms.
About the author
Simon Hazeldine works internationally as a revenue growth and sales performance speaker, consultant, and coach. He empowers his clients to get more sales, more often with more margin.
He has spoken in over thirty countries and his client list includes some of the world’s largest and most successful companies.
Simon has a master’s degree in psychology, is the bestselling author of ten books that have been endorsed by a host of business leaders including multi-billionaire business legend Michael Dell and is co-founder of leading sales podcast “The Sales Chat Show”.
He is the creator of the neuroscience based “Brain Friendly Selling”® methodology.
Simon Hazeldine’s books:
- Neuro-Sell: How Neuroscience Can Power Your Sales Success
- Bare Knuckle Selling
- Bare Knuckle Negotiating
- Bare Knuckle Customer Service
- The Inner Winner
- How To Lead Your Sales Team – Virtually and in Person
- Virtual Selling Success
- How To Manage Your People’s Performance
- How To Create Effective Employee Development Plans
- Virtual Negotiation Success
